
You know how every big disaster film involves one rogue scientist trying in vain to warn the authorities about an impending calamity that only they have predicted, only to be rebuked and/or silenced by those same authorities? Well, it seems the recent events in Italy might have been a case of life imitating art
writ large.
Apparently Gioacchino Giuliani, a researcher with the National Physical Laboratory of Gran Sasso, predicted the coming quake and had been very vocal in trying to warn the locals; putting warnings on the internet and organising vans with tannoys to go around warning people. His forecasts were based on the build-up of radon gas in seismically active areas, which he had been monitoring for several years.
Them there nasty authorities weren't too impressed however:
However the reaction of the mayor of L'Aquila, Massimo Cialente, was to accuse Giuliani of "spreading alarm". He was reported to the police for "scaremongering" and had to pull his warnings off the internet.
So it would seem that the single rational voice was silenced for political convienience with disasterous results - at least that's how it's generally been reported. Thing is, people (even supposed experts) predict earthquakes all the time, especially in areas where they are more common. Even a knackered clock is right twice a day, and there really isn't any reliable and consistant means of predicting earthquakes despite Mr Giuliani's particular obsession with Radon levels.
As the head geo-bod Enzo Boschi put it:
Every time there is an earthquake there are people who claim to have predicted it," he said. "As far as I know nobody predicted this earthquake with precision. It is not possible to predict earthquakes."
And he then went on to mention the slightly more mundane and not at all surprising situation:
He said the real problem for Italy was a long-standing failure to take proper precautions despite a history of tragic quakes. "We have earthquakes, but then we forget and do nothing. It's not in our culture to take precautions or build in an appropriate way in areas where there could be strong earthquakes," he added.
Still, I wouldn't want to be Mayor Cialente today.